El Niño watch issued by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center
Climate scientists estimate the warm weather pattern could begin to develop as early as May.
www.cbsnews.comHere are the latest widely referenced updates on ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) status as of early 2026:
-
ENSO neutral expected to persist through spring 2026, with increasing odds of El Niño developing later in 2026. Several authoritative updates indicate a transition toward El Niño conditions is likely sometime May–July 2026 and could last through the end of 2026, barring unexpected shifts in ocean-atmosphere dynamics. This reflects a shift from neutral to El Niño conditions after a period of ENSO neutrality.[6][7]
-
In early 2025, NOAA and Climate Prediction Center indicators showed La Niña had ended, with the tropical Pacific returning to ENSO-neutral conditions and forecasts suggesting neutral conditions could continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2025 before potential warming. While that historical snapshot is from 2025, the most recent guidance often points toward a re-emergence of El Niño later in 2026, consistent with typical ENSO seasonal evolution patterns.[2][7]
-
The World Meteorological Organization and regional meteorological services monitor ENSO updates closely and publish periodic outlooks detailing probabilities for La Niña, neutral, or El Niño states. As of mid-2025 to early 2026, their communications emphasized ongoing monitoring with a growing emphasis on the potential onset of El Niño in 2026.[4][10]
-
Impacts to watch for with a developing El Niño include changes in global rainfall patterns (typically wetter conditions in the southern United States and parts of the Americas, drier conditions in some regions of the western Pacific and the Indian Ocean), as well as potential shifts in winter precipitation and temperature patterns in various regions. Forecasters stress that regional effects vary and depend on the strength and duration of the El Niño event.[10][2]
Would you like a concise, region-by-region forecast for your area (Edison, NJ) and nearby regions, plus a short summary of how El Niño conditions historically influence winter weather and flood risk in the U.S. Northeast? I can pull the latest CPC/NOAA outlooks and summarize them for you with sources.